Affordable Care Act marketplace premiums are on track for another sharp increase nationally as insurers submit early 2027 rate filings. The new numbers quickly became political after Rep. Thomas Massie, a Kentucky Republican, said the law could now be labeled “Trumpcare.”
Early filings show another double-digit increase
ACA marketplace insurers are proposing a median premium increase of 14% for 2027, according to a KFF analysis published July 8 that reviewed preliminary filings from 77 insurers in 16 states and the District of Columbia. KFF said that, if the proposed rates are approved broadly, typical marketplace premiums would rise by more than one-third between 2025 and 2027.
The filings are preliminary, not final. Insurers still must complete state review processes, and July 15 is the filing deadline for 2027 ACA marketplace plans, so additional submissions could change the national picture. Even so, KFF said most insurers in the states reviewed are seeking increases between 10% and 20%, with 20 insurers requesting hikes above 20%.
The projected increase follows a steep climb for 2026 coverage. KFF previously reported that insurers proposed a median 15% increase for 2026, and another KFF analysis found the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits contributed to significantly higher out-of-pocket premium payments and deductibles for many enrollees.
That backdrop fed directly into the latest political debate. A Fox News Digital report published July 9 said Massie suggested Obamacare could now be called “Trumpcare,” tying the current insurance environment to policies in place under President Donald Trump rather than treating the law only as an Obama-era program.
Massie represents Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District, and his comments gave the national premium story a Kentucky angle. His remark did not change any ACA rates in the state, but it underscored how health coverage costs are becoming a campaign issue again as 2027 filings emerge and lawmakers argue over who owns the policy consequences.
What is confirmed nationally is that early filings point to broad upward pressure on premiums. What is not yet known is the final state-by-state effect once every insurer files and regulators complete reviews. KFF’s July 8 analysis covered 16 states and the District of Columbia, not all 50 states, and it did not present a final approved 2027 rate for every Kentucky marketplace plan.
Kentucky residents who buy coverage on the individual marketplace may not all feel the same effect. Premium changes vary by insurer, metal tier, age rating, and county, and subsidies can offset part of the increase for eligible enrollees. KFF has also reported that middle-income consumers who do not qualify for sufficient financial assistance are more exposed to the full cost of higher premiums.
The political framing may continue because Kentucky is home to one of the Republican voices making that argument. But the state has not yet released a final, comprehensive picture of approved 2027 ACA marketplace premiums tied to Massie’s comments.
KFF said insurers are attributing the proposed 2027 increases to several concrete factors. Those include rising costs for hospital care, physician services and prescription drugs, including GLP-1 medications and other specialty treatments, along with broader labor shortages and inflation-driven provider expenses.
The analysis also pointed to the expiration of the ACA’s enhanced premium tax credits at the end of 2025 as a major driver of instability. KFF has reported that the loss of those credits led to a 58% average increase in out-of-pocket premiums in 2026 and deductibles roughly $1,000 higher per person, changes that affected enrollment and the mix of people staying in marketplace coverage.
KFF said insurers estimate a sicker risk pool added about four percentage points to 2026 premiums and could add another four points in 2027. Separate KFF tracking has also found insurer participation changes heading into 2027, including some carriers leaving certain ACA markets after enrollment declines following the subsidy expiration.
For consumers, the practical takeaway is that 2027 premiums are not final yet, but current filings point to continued pressure on marketplace costs. State regulators will review the requests in the months ahead, and open enrollment later this year will determine what shoppers actually see when approved plans and prices are posted.