Millions of Americans may be heading into a more expensive winter, with home heating costs expected to rise nationwide. The National Energy Assistance Directors Association said U.S. households are projected to spend an average of $1,030 to heat their homes this winter, up $82, or 8.7 percent, from last year.
The strain is expected to fall hardest on low income households, older adults and people on fixed incomes, especially in places where heating oil remains common. Federal data and state program documents show heating aid is available in many states, but funding levels and timing vary, and some states have warned in past budget fights that delays can quickly ripple down to families who rely on help to keep the heat on.
Heating costs are rising across the country
NEADA said in recent testimony and press materials that the average U.S. household will spend $1,030 on heat this winter. The group also said the President’s fiscal 2027 budget proposal would eliminate $4 billion for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, support that NEADA said about 6 million low income households rely on for heating and cooling help.
Federal energy forecasts show the picture is uneven by fuel type. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said U.S. natural gas inventories are on track to be above the five year average at the start of winter, a sign of relatively stronger supply. But EIA has also warned in its winter fuels outlook that colder weather can quickly drive up household consumption and expenditures, especially for homes using heating oil, propane and natural gas.
Weather adds another layer. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said the October through December 2026 outlook favors above normal temperatures over most of the contiguous United States, though it also noted the possibility of one or more cold air outbreaks across the northwestern quarter of the Lower 48 states. That means a warmer national outlook does not rule out sharp local cold snaps that can push bills higher in a hurry.
The most acute pressure appears to be in the Northeast, where heating oil is still widely used. A Yahoo Finance report, citing a study, said families in the region that rely on heating oil could pay about $3.8 billion more than last year. The same report said all 4.79 million households that use heating oil as their primary heating fuel would be affected.
EIA’s winter fuels outlook also points to risk for oil heated homes. The agency said that in a colder scenario, the average household using heating oil as its primary heating fuel would consume 4 percent more heating oil than last winter. For propane users, EIA said a colder winter could push Midwest propane expenditures to 6 percent more than last winter.
What is not yet clear is how much relief state aid programs will provide household by household. State LIHEAP plans and clearinghouse records show application periods differ widely. In California, the 2026 LIHEAP state plan lists heating assistance from October 1, 2025 through September 30, 2026. In Pennsylvania, the published 2026 plan proposed opening cash and crisis components on November 3, 2025 and closing April 10, 2026. Those records show how dependent winter help is on state level schedules and available funding.
For many households, the next question is not whether bills are rising, but whether assistance will arrive in time. LIHEAP clearinghouse records show some states open heating help early for priority groups such as older adults, people with disabilities and families with very young children. Illinois, for example, scheduled priority applications to begin October 1, 2025, with other eligible households able to apply starting November 1, 2025.
The broader affordability problem has been building for years. NEADA said energy affordability now spans seasons, not just winter, and has tied rising heating costs to higher electricity and natural gas prices. AP has also reported that high energy bills are a major source of stress for many Americans, and that proposals to cut federal heating aid could leave fewer households eligible for help.
What comes next will depend on weather, fuel markets and public funding. EIA said household heating spending can shift significantly when temperatures turn colder than expected. For families already stretched by rent, food and electric bills, even a modest cold snap could make this winter much harder to manage.