Immigration enforcement has become not only a legal and political issue, but an economic one for cities with large immigrant populations. In Chicago, a new University of Illinois Chicago report found that fear tied to the 2025 ICE crackdown coincided with a sharp drop in routine consumer trips between immigrant and non-immigrant neighborhoods, cutting deeply into local commerce. The findings focus on Cook County and trace the downturn to the period immediately after President Donald Trump took office on Jan. 20, 2025.
UIC report ties post-inauguration enforcement fears to $1.26 billion in losses
The University of Illinois Chicago study, published in 2026 and reported by NPR through Ideastream, examined anonymous cellphone GPS data to measure travel between immigrant and non-immigrant neighborhoods across Cook County. Researchers found that the normal back-and-forth movement between those communities fell sharply after Jan. 20, 2025, when rumors spread that Chicago would be a near-term target for Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids. Co-author Matt Wilson told NPR the pattern changed almost immediately and did not return to its earlier level.
Wilson said the study estimated that reduced mobility cost retail stores and restaurants in non-immigrant neighborhoods about $1.26 billion over roughly a year. He also said the state lost an estimated $107 million in tax revenue tied to the decline in consumer activity. According to the report as described by NPR, retail visits fell 9% and restaurant visits fell 10%, and those changes persisted for about a year rather than rebounding quickly.
The report frames the losses as a countywide spillover effect rather than a hit limited to immigrant business corridors. Wilson told NPR that immigrant communities in Chicago are closely tied to the broader regional economy, with residents making regular trips to commercial areas across the county. That conclusion is central to the study’s finding that enforcement fears in one set of neighborhoods translated into weaker sales in others.
For Chicago and the broader Cook County economy, the study’s main finding is that fewer shopping and dining trips were recorded not only in immigrant communities but also in areas that are not majority immigrant. NPR reported that researchers attributed much of the $1.26 billion loss to businesses in non-immigrant neighborhoods, underscoring how dependent the local economy is on routine movement across community lines. In practical terms, that means the downturn was felt in restaurants, retail corridors and sales-tax collections outside the neighborhoods most directly associated with immigration enforcement fears.
What remains unclear is which individual business districts or municipalities absorbed the largest losses. The report summary cited by NPR does not provide a comprehensive public list of the hardest-hit Chicago corridors, suburbs or store categories. It also does not break out how much of the lost Illinois tax revenue came from the city of Chicago versus other parts of Cook County.
Still, the available figures point to a sustained drag rather than a short disruption. Wilson said the city has not yet recovered, according to NPR’s account of the study. For small businesses operating on narrow margins, the report notes that a yearlong drop of around 10% in foot traffic can create a significant financial strain even without permanent closures being publicly tallied.
The study links the economic decline to fear surrounding immigration crackdowns that began in early 2025. NPR reported that residents changed everyday behavior amid rumors of raids and later enforcement sweeps, with some avoiding routine errands such as grocery shopping because of concern that ICE agents might be present. That behavioral shift, rather than a formal business restriction, is presented as the immediate mechanism behind the lost visits and weaker spending.
NPR also placed the Chicago findings in a broader national context, reporting that the Trump administration’s crackdown has produced hundreds of thousands of arrests nationwide and pushed the immigration detention population to about 65,000, a record high. The White House defended the strategy in a statement to NPR, saying enforcement makes communities safer for business owners and customers. NPR also reported that ICE agency statistics show roughly 70% of people currently detained do not have criminal convictions.
For Chicago residents and business owners, the report suggests the effects can outlast the initial raids themselves. Customers should expect the debate over immigration enforcement to continue carrying economic implications for neighborhood shopping districts, restaurants and state tax collections as researchers and policymakers assess the longer-term fallout. The UIC findings also add to a growing body of research cited by NPR, including Brookings Institution work on reduced consumer spending in high-enforcement states, indicating that Chicago’s experience fits a wider national pattern.