U.S. households are headed into another more expensive winter heating season, with one fuel standing out from the rest. The National Energy Assistance Directors Association, or NEADA, said on September 14 that average home heating costs for winter 2026 to 2027 are projected to reach $1,030, up $82, or 8.7 percent, from last winter.
The sharpest increase is expected for households that rely on heating oil. NEADA said heating oil expenditures are projected to rise 31.3 percent this winter, far above the increases forecast for electricity, propane and natural gas. That matters most in parts of the Northeast, where oil heat still plays an outsized role in keeping homes warm.
NEADA projects a broad increase, led by heating oil
NEADA said the projected national increase covers all major home heating fuels, but the gap between them is wide. The group said households heating with electricity are expected to pay 9 percent more this winter, propane users 8.7 percent more, and natural gas customers 5.8 percent more. Heating oil users face the biggest jump at 31.3 percent.
The group said the average U.S. household is projected to spend $1,030 on heating during the winter of 2026 to 2027. That is $82 more than last winter. NEADA also said average heating costs have climbed 23.9 percent since the winter of 2021 to 2022.
Federal forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration show how quickly expectations can shift when weather and fuel prices change. In its 2025 Winter Fuels Outlook, released October 15, 2025, EIA said winter heating costs would vary mainly by the retail price of a home’s primary fuel, and it updated those forecasts monthly through the season. By December 15, 2025, EIA said colder weather and higher retail price forecasts, especially for natural gas and propane, had pushed expected winter spending higher.
The regional pressure is expected to be heaviest in the Northeast, where heating oil remains more common than in much of the country. ConsumerAffairs, citing NEADA, reported that the Northeast is likely to remain the country’s most expensive region for home heating because of its colder climate, higher electricity rates and heavier dependence on heating oil.
Reuters reported on September 23 that Maine, described in the article as the state most reliant on home heating oil, has already become a focal point in the debate over winter energy costs. Senators Susan Collins and Angus King asked President Donald Trump to release fuel from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve as diesel prices surged.
The senators said Maine households are paying about $675 more to fill a heating oil tank than they did last year, citing a Maine Department of Energy Resources survey, according to Reuters. The reserve stores 1 million barrels of diesel in four sites from Maine to New Jersey and holds roughly 10 days of heating oil for the region, Reuters reported. What is not yet clear from the available forecasts is how much bills will vary town by town or state by state beyond those reported examples.
The reasons behind the increase differ by fuel. NEADA and other recent coverage tie heating oil’s sharp rise to its exposure to global petroleum markets. ConsumerAffairs reported that heating oil costs are closely linked to crude oil prices and international supply disruptions, making oil-heated homes especially vulnerable when those markets jump.
Reuters reported that diesel prices, which are similar to heating oil prices, surged to a record above $6.50 a gallon as wars involving Iran and Ukraine crimped fuel production and petroleum shipments. That helps explain why heating oil is seeing a much steeper projected increase than other heating fuels this season.
Weather remains the biggest wildcard. EIA said in December 2025 that weather is a key source of uncertainty in its winter fuel forecasts and that retail energy prices, especially for propane and heating oil, are sensitive to weather-related effects on demand, supply and wholesale prices. For households trying to budget now, the clearest confirmed fact is this: current projections show winter heating bills rising again, and heating oil users are set to absorb the hardest hit.