Nationally, Affordable Care Act marketplace coverage got more expensive in 2026 after pandemic-era subsidy enhancements expired at the end of 2025. Now a new analysis released July 8 shows insurers are already seeking another round of sizable increases for 2027, extending pressure on people who buy their own coverage.
KFF says insurers are already proposing another year of sharp ACA rate hikes
A new Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker analysis released Wednesday found that, across 77 insurers with publicly available filings, the median proposed premium increase for 2027 is 14%. That follows an average increase of about 20% in 2026 and a median proposed increase of 18% for that year, according to KFF’s review of 2026 filings.
The scale of the increase matters because it comes immediately after this year’s jump. AP reported that KFF’s July 8 analysis tied the 2027 requests to mounting health care costs, federal regulatory changes, and the expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies that had helped hold down what many consumers paid in recent years.
Federal marketplace data also show that the 2026 coverage year became more expensive even for subsidized shoppers, though not evenly. CMS said the average HealthCare.gov premium after tax credits for the lowest-cost plan was projected at $50 a month in 2026, up $13 from 2025, while support for a benchmark plan fell for some enrollees, including 50-year-olds earning twice the poverty level.
KFF’s earlier 2026 review described the current year’s increase as the biggest requested change since 2018. That makes the new 2027 analysis notable not as an isolated spike, but as a second straight year of double-digit pressure in the individual market.
The latest effect is being felt across states, but not in the same way everywhere. KFF reported last month that marketplace plan selections declined in 41 states in 2026, with the largest percentage drops in North Carolina at 22%, Ohio at 20%, West Virginia at 17%, and Indiana, Delaware, and Arizona at 16%.
Separate federal data cited by AP this week showed the overall ACA marketplace shrank by more than 2.5 million people over the past year, with some states losing close to one-third of their enrollees. Those state-by-state figures help explain why insurers are warning about a weaker enrollment mix heading into 2027.
What is not yet known is the final 2027 outcome in every state. The KFF analysis is based on preliminary public rate filings, not final approved premiums, and the sample reflects insurers whose filings are already available. Regulators can still modify rates before open enrollment.
There are also states where local policy decisions have softened the blow. KFF said New Mexico posted an 18% increase in 2026 plan selections, likely helped by temporary state supplemental financial assistance that replaced lost federal aid for some residents.
The biggest structural change was the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits on December 31, 2025. Those subsidies, first expanded under the American Rescue Plan and later extended by the Inflation Reduction Act, had reduced premiums for many middle-income households and removed the subsidy cliff for people above 400% of the federal poverty level.
KFF said average monthly premium payments net of tax credits rose 58% in 2026, from $113 to $178, and previously estimated that subsidized enrollees who kept the same plan would face an average 114% increase. The same report found enrollment losses were concentrated among younger adults and people above 400% of poverty, groups insurers generally view as healthier.
That enrollment shift is central to why 2027 could be worse. In filings quoted by KFF, insurers in states including Indiana and New York said they expect healthier consumers to leave coverage, producing a smaller and higher-cost risk pool. A New York filing cited by KFF referenced a Congressional Budget Office estimate that gross benchmark premiums would rise 4.3% in 2026 and 7.7% in 2027 without a permanent subsidy extension.
Insurers also pointed to broader medical cost growth and federal rule changes affecting eligibility and marketplace operations. For consumers, the practical takeaway is that 2027 prices are not final yet, but the filings suggest that people buying their own coverage should expect another year of higher sticker prices even if some subsidy-eligible households remain partially protected.