A University of Toronto analysis published in May 2026 found a year over year median decline of about 42% in Canadian visits to U.S. metropolitan areas, based on cell phone activity data. The researchers said that drop was measured between April 1, 2024, through March 31, 2025, and April 1, 2025, through March 31, 2026.
The finding points to a sharper pullback than official border data alone has shown. Statistics Canada has reported steep declines in return trips from the United States in early 2025, but the phone based analysis suggests the slowdown has reached deeper into city visits, including tourism and some business related travel.
University of Toronto analysis found a steeper drop than border counts
The analysis was posted by the University of Toronto School of Cities project Mapping Tariffs and credited to Karen Chapple, Yihoi Jung and Jeff Allen. The researchers said they used cell phone activity data from Cuebiq and found a year over year median decline of approximately 42% in Canadian visits to U.S. metropolitan areas.
They compared two 12 month periods, April 1, 2024, to March 31, 2025, and April 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026. The project said that result was significantly higher than the roughly 25% drop shown in border crossing estimates. An editor’s note dated May 13, 2026, said Portland, Oregon, was removed from the project because of the Oregon Consumer Privacy Act 2025.
The researchers said the difference likely reflects measurement scope. Their write-up says the cell phone data includes freight traffic, while border crossing data does not. It also says Canadians who still travel to the United States may be visiting fewer locations and staying for less time than before.
The University of Toronto project said the declines were visible in snowbird destinations in Florida, border region cities in states including New York, New Hampshire and Vermont, and major destinations such as Las Vegas and Disney World. It also said major metropolitan economies including San Francisco and Houston appeared to be seeing reductions in tourist and business related travel.
Other travel forecasters have pointed to some of the same places. Tourism Economics said the pullback in Canadian travel was expected to hit cities such as Seattle, Portland and Detroit the hardest in 2025, with Seattle projected to see a 26.9% drop in overnight international visitors, Portland 18.3%, and Detroit 17.3%.
What is not yet clear is the full city by city economic toll. The available sources point to weaker visitor volumes and lower travel demand, but they do not provide a complete local breakdown for every U.S. metro area or a final count of business losses tied to the Canadian slowdown.
The Mapping Tariffs project said the decline came amid increasingly strained political relations between Canada and the United States. Tourism Economics tied the weaker inbound outlook to sentiment headwinds, Trump administration policy announcements including tariffs, media coverage of border security incidents and national travel advisories.
Statistics Canada data shows how abrupt the change became in early 2025. It reported five consecutive months of steep year over year declines in Canadian resident return trips by automobile from the United States. In May 2025, those automobile return trips were down 38.1% from a year earlier, with same day returns down 40.3% and overnight travel down 34.3%.
Air travel also weakened. Statistics Canada said Canadian resident return trips from the United States by air fell 14.0% year over year in April 2025 and 24.2% in May. Tourism Economics said land crossings from Canada were down 28.0% year to date and air arrivals were down 13.3%, reinforcing the picture of a broad retreat in cross border travel.